Why Threat & Behavioral Analysis Matters for Prevention

Threat & Behavioral Analysis is a systematic approach to identifying and managing individuals on a path toward violence. Unlike profiling, it examines observable actions and warning behaviors to assess risk and intervene before harm occurs.

Key Components of Threat & Behavioral Analysis:

  • Identify – Recognize concerning behaviors like fixation or leakage.
  • Inquire – Gather information to understand context.
  • Assess – Evaluate risk based on behavioral patterns.
  • Manage – Implement interventions to reduce risk and provide support.

Primary Goal: Prevention through early intervention, not prediction or punishment.

Who Uses It: Law enforcement, school safety teams, workplace security, mental health professionals, and federal agencies.

Targeted violence is premeditated. Research from the U.S. Secret Service shows that in 76% of mass attacks, offenders exhibited behaviors that concerned others before the incident. This reveals a critical truth: opportunities exist to recognize warning signs and intervene.

Many organizations still use reactive measures or outdated profiling, focusing on demographics instead of behavior. This misses the mark, as violence is about what people are doing and planning, not who they are. The shift to Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM) is an evidence-based process that uses multidisciplinary teams for supportive interventions. It's about understanding distress signals and providing pathways to de-escalation.

I'm Joshua McAfee, CEO of McAfee Institute. I've spent my career building systems that protect people, from Amazon's Loss Prevention program to training professionals worldwide. My work in Threat & Behavioral Analysis has shaped how organizations assess risk and manage crises. This guide will equip you with the knowledge to recognize threats and take action.

Infographic showing the pathway from grievance to violence: Grievance leads to Ideation, then Research and Planning, followed by Preparation, then Breach, and finally Attack. Key intervention points are highlighted at each stage before the attack occurs, emphasizing early identification, inquiry, assessment, and management as opportunities to prevent violence. - Threat & Behavioral Analysis infographic

The Evolution of Threat Assessment: From Profiling to Behavior

For decades, threat assessment relied on profiling—identifying threats based on demographics or static traits. This approach was ineffective, discriminatory, and often missed real threats that didn't fit a predetermined "profile." It violated civil rights and created countless false positives.

The shift to behavioral analysis is one of the most important advances in public safety. Instead of asking "what kind of person commits violence," we now ask, "what behaviors indicate someone is moving toward violence?" This transformed Threat & Behavioral Analysis.

Pioneered by the FBI's Behavioral Science Unit (1972) and the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime (1985), research revealed that targeted violence is almost always premeditated. Attackers leave behavioral breadcrumbs—observable actions and communications that signal their intent. This insight means that if violence is planned, there are opportunities to intervene.

Feature Traditional Profiling Behavioral Analysis
Focus Demographics, static traits, stereotypes, "types" Observable behaviors, communication patterns, patterns of thinking, dynamic risk factors
Goal Predict who might become a threat Assess whether an individual is moving towards violence and how to intervene
Methodology Often subjective, based on assumptions or limited data Systematic, fact-based investigation, multidisciplinary input, evidence-based models, ongoing management
Effectiveness Prone to bias, high rates of false positives, often inaccurate More effective in identifying and mitigating specific threats, reduces bias, focuses resources on actionable concerns. Studies show that 76% of offenders exhibited concerning behaviors prior to an attack, highlighting the value of behavioral indicators over demographic profiles.
Ethical Stance Can lead to discrimination and civil rights violations Non-discriminatory, respects civil rights, prioritizes privacy while managing risk

Modern behavioral analysis focuses on what people do, not who they are. It examines dynamic behaviors like fixation, leakage of violent intent, and changes in routine. This allows us to track evolving risk and intervene with support. The approach is systematic, respects civil rights, and prioritizes prevention over prediction. We identify concerning patterns and manage risk through thoughtful intervention, not by trying to predict the future.

The FBI's guide, Making Prevention a Reality, details how this behavioral approach is a practical tool for preventing targeted violence. At McAfee Institute, our training is built on these evidence-based principles because they work. We teach the most effective methods in Threat & Behavioral Analysis to help professionals identify threats early, support individuals in crisis, and prevent violence.

The BTAM Framework: A Systematic Approach to Threat & Behavioral Analysis

Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM) is the structured, fact-based process at the heart of behavioral analysis. It's a proactive framework used to identify, assess, and manage individuals who may pose a threat of violence. BTAM is not profiling, prediction, or punishment; it focuses on understanding behavior and providing supportive interventions. Its systematic approach provides a clear, legally defensible roadmap that reduces bias and protects civil rights.

The BTAM process follows four interconnected phases:

  1. Identify: Recognize concerning behaviors or communications that signal someone may be on a path to violence.
  2. Inquire: Conduct thorough fact-finding to understand the person's context, life situation, and stressors.
  3. Assess: Evaluate the collected information to determine the level of risk, considering intent, motive, and capability.
  4. Manage: Develop and implement custom intervention strategies to reduce risk and provide support, such as mental health referrals, workplace accommodations, or connections to community resources.

This standardized process ensures every case is handled with rigor, protecting organizations and saving lives. For law enforcement, the U.S. Secret Service offers A guide for law enforcement on building BTAM units. Professionals seeking to master these methods can enroll in our Certified Workplace Violence and Threat Specialist (WVTS) program for comprehensive training.

Key Indicators: What Behaviors Are Concerning?

Research from the FBI and Secret Service provides clear answers on what behaviors indicate a move toward violence. In 76% of mass attacks, offenders exhibited behaviors that concerned others beforehand, creating opportunities for intervention. These are observable patterns, not assumptions based on appearance. Key indicators include:

  • Fixation: An intense, unhealthy preoccupation with a person, cause, or belief, often manifesting as obsessive research or stalking.
  • Leakage: Communicating intent to harm to a third party, which can be subtle, like a disturbing essay, vague threats, or concerning social media posts.
  • Grievance and Ideation: A pathway often starts with a grievance (a real or imagined wrong) that festers and leads to ideation (forming violent fantasies as a solution).
  • Changes in Behavior: A noticeable shift, such as increased isolation, declining performance, unusual purchases, or neglecting hygiene. 46% of offenders showed such changes before an attack.
  • Interest in Violence/Weapons: An unusual fascination with past attacks, weapons, or violence that goes beyond casual interest.
  • End-of-Life Planning: Giving away possessions, writing farewell notes, or putting affairs in order can signal preparation for a final act.
  • Approach Behavior: Attempts to gain proximity to a potential target, representing an advanced stage on the pathway to violence.
  • Direct Threats: Any directly communicated threat must be taken seriously and investigated immediately.

No single behavior is definitive proof, but a combination of these indicators should raise alarms. Methodologies like TRAP-18 help professionals evaluate these behavioral red flags.

Flowchart illustrating different concerning behaviors leading to potential violence, such as grievance, ideation, research, planning, preparation, and breach, with intervention points highlighted. - Threat & Behavioral Analysis

The Role of Multidisciplinary Teams in Effective BTAM

Effective Threat & Behavioral Analysis requires a team effort, as no single person or agency can prevent targeted violence alone. Multidisciplinary teams are essential for developing a holistic understanding of a threat by pooling diverse expertise.

A typical BTAM team includes:

  • Law Enforcement: Provides investigative capabilities and ensures safety.
  • Mental Health Professionals: Assess psychological states and recommend interventions.
  • Human Resources/Management: Understand organizational dynamics and policy.
  • Legal Counsel: Advises on privacy laws (HIPAA, FERPA) and civil rights.
  • Educators/Administrators: Offer insights into student behavior patterns.
  • Social Services: Connect individuals with community resources.

This collaborative model, sometimes called the "BAND" approach by DHS, builds shared responsibility and normalizes early intervention. Effective information sharing, while respecting legal boundaries, is the backbone of this collaboration, as emphasized by the National Counterterrorism Center's guide on Multidisciplinary Teams.

Investigators can strengthen their collaborative and investigative skills with our Certified Professional Criminal Investigator (CPCI) certification, which provides advanced training in team-based case management. Effective threat management is about working together.

Implementing BTAM: From Theory to Practice

Putting Threat & Behavioral Analysis into practice transforms an organization's safety culture. It's not just about catching threats; it's about creating an environment where people feel safe to speak up and where intervention means support, not punishment.

Organizations can leverage BTAM by building a culture of shared responsibility, establishing clear reporting mechanisms, and focusing on supportive interventions. The benefits include improved public safety, stronger security postures, and proactive risk reduction.

Crucially, BTAM emphasizes supportive interventions over punitive measures. The primary question is, "What does this person need?" The answer often involves mental health counseling, social services, or conflict resolution to address underlying stressors.

Data from the Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention (TVTP) Grant Program (FY 2020-2023) highlights this. Of 1,172 cases tracked, teams made 881 referrals to external resources like mental health counseling (476), social services (141), and housing assistance (59). Only 6.5% of cases resulted in a law enforcement referral. This shows BTAM in action: redirecting individuals by addressing their needs, not criminalizing their distress.

This approach also delivers cost savings and strengthens communities by fostering collective responsibility for safety.

A diverse group of community members and professionals gathered in a town hall, actively participating in a discussion about community safety and prevention strategies. - Threat & Behavioral Analysis

Reporting and Resources for Threat & Behavioral Analysis

Bystanders are the first line of defense. Since 76% of offenders showed concerning behaviors to others before their attacks, turning bystanders into "upstanders" who report concerns is critical for prevention. As the National Counterterrorism Center states, Bystanders are Key to Countering Terrorism.

Clear, trusted reporting channels are essential. Key reporting options include:

  • Local Police Department: For immediate threats or general concerns.
  • FBI: For federal-level concerns, report at www.tips.fbi.gov or 1-800-CALL-FBI.
  • School/Workplace Teams: Many organizations have internal threat assessment teams.
  • iWatch Texas: A community reporting system for those in Texas.
  • National Threat Evaluation and Reporting (NTER) Office: Offers national guidance.

If you see something concerning, discuss it with a trusted supervisor or colleague. If you believe a threat exists, report it. Early reporting provides the best chance for successful intervention.

Professionals can sharpen their intelligence-gathering skills for these assessments with our OSINT training, which provides practical skills for effective threat evaluation.

Challenges and the Future of Behavioral Analysis

While Threat & Behavioral Analysis is a powerful tool, it faces challenges in balancing security with individual rights, navigating human complexity, and integrating technology.

Key challenges include:

  • Legal and Ethical Complexity: Protecting privacy while identifying risk is a constant balancing act. Professionals must steer laws like HIPAA and FERPA alongside the legal duty to warn or protect when a credible threat is identified.
  • False Positives: Misinterpreting harmless behavior as threatening is an inevitable risk. Minimizing false positives requires rigorous training and standardized processes to avoid unfairly stigmatizing individuals.
  • Human Complexity: Cultural backgrounds, stressors, and mental health shape behavior, making it impossible to use a simple checklist. Skilled professionals are needed to consider context and exercise sound judgment.

Looking ahead, artificial intelligence and machine learning will support, not replace, human analysts. As detailed in How AI Is Transforming the Future of Investigations, AI can process vast amounts of data to flag anomalies for human review. It can identify patterns in communications or information access that signal distress or escalating risk.

However, technology cannot replace human wisdom, empathy, and ethical decision-making. AI cannot grasp the full context of a person's life or provide the compassionate interventions central to effective threat management. The future lies in combining technology with a human touch, ensuring transparency, and matching our response to the actual level of risk.

An abstract graphic representing a delicate balance scale, with one side holding a padlock (symbolizing security) and the other side holding a symbol for privacy (e.g., a stylized eye or a person icon). The scale is perfectly balanced, suggesting the need for equilibrium between security measures and individual privacy rights. - Threat & Behavioral Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions about Threat & Behavioral Analysis

Is behavioral threat assessment the same as profiling?

No. Profiling is an outdated, discriminatory approach that focuses on static characteristics like demographics to predict threats. It is ineffective and violates civil rights. Behavioral threat assessment is a non-discriminatory, evidence-based process that focuses on what a person is doing—their observable behaviors, communications, and patterns. It assesses actions, not attributes, to identify and manage genuine threats while respecting individual rights.

What is the main goal of a BTAM intervention?

The primary goal is prevention and risk mitigation, not punishment. A Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM) intervention seeks to understand the drivers of concerning behavior and address underlying issues. By assessing the whole picture, teams provide resources like mental health counseling, social services, or conflict resolution to de-escalate the threat. As TVTP data shows, over 93% of cases are resolved through supportive interventions, not law enforcement referrals. The goal is to guide individuals off the path to violence by offering help.

Can behavioral analysis predict violence with 100% certainty?

No. Behavioral analysis is not a crystal ball and cannot predict violence with absolute certainty. Human behavior is too complex. Instead, it is a risk assessment and management tool. Like a weather forecast, it helps professionals assess the level of risk an individual may pose and implement interventions to manage that risk. The focus is on identifying individuals on a pathway to violence and intervening with support to redirect them, which is the most effective way to save lives.

Conclusion

Threat & Behavioral Analysis is changing violence prevention. Instead of reacting to tragedy, this proactive approach focuses on recognizing warning signs, building multidisciplinary teams, and offering support over punishment.

The shift from profiling to evidence-based behavioral analysis creates opportunities for intervention by focusing on what people do, not who they are. Since 76% of offenders showed concerning behaviors beforehand, we know these chances exist. The BTAM framework—Identify, Inquire, Assess, and Manage—provides a systematic, collaborative roadmap grounded in research. Success in this field is measured by supportive outcomes, such as referrals to mental health counseling and social services, which resolve the vast majority of cases.

While challenges like privacy rights and human complexity remain, the path forward is clear. Technology will assist, but it will never replace the need for human judgment and empathy.

For professionals committed to this vital work, McAfee Institute offers training built on real-world experience and government-recognized standards. Our programs provide the tools to assess threats, manage risk, and protect your community. Explore our board certifications today and build a career that makes a difference. Together, we can create safer communities through understanding, collaboration, and prevention.